February in Review

In this review of the past month, we cover how Japan has managed its relations with China and the U.S.

Diplomacy

Beijing Cheers, Tokyo Jeers

By Senior Contributor Julian Sherrod

Over the course of this month, Japan has made concessions to the US, challenging Japan to make tough choices to please both Beijing and Washington to the detriment of its foreign policy.

Balancing, Hedging, or Bandwagoning: China-Japan relations have had major shifts over the last two and a half decades. During the Shinzo Abe administration, the diplomatic outlook towards China could be classified as uneasy nationalistic competition despite changes in outlook outlined by speeches later. While not bandwagoning with the US, Japan competed with China economically, politically, and militarily to a limited extent. Under former prime ministers Suga and Kishida, Japan looked towards bandwagoning with the US to isolate China and its military influence that was growing in East Asia. No administration until now has seemed to side solely with China. While Abe was a nationalist, he knew the value of cooperating with China to a limited extent to both promote economic growth and to reduce tensions, while his successors worked more alongside the US to bandwagon with Japan’s security guarantor. Now, with Shigeru Ishiba in office, Japan may side more so with China than the US, despite the importance of the US in Japanese foreign policy.

Concession Diplomacy: Ishiba visited the US this month for a long-awaited US-Japan summit which has had ramifications for Japan ever since. At first, it seemed that the summit went very well for Ishiba. Despite Trump’s unpredictability, especially regarding the tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, it appeared that Ishiba cleverly leveraged personal diplomacy to a limited extent as Abe had to avoid similar tariffs. His influence was overstated, as Trump has now threatened tariffs for all nations on a reciprocal basis based on tariffs and non-tariff barriers to market entry. China also lambasted both Japan and the US for agreeing to the terminology regarding the South China Sea and China’s activities within it. With Trump also threatening to withdraw support from Ukraine, it is unclear if the Trump administration would commit to Japan’s defense if it was attacked by an adversary without conditions. On the topic, Ishiba has stated that Japan will not be taking sides, meaning that Japan may still be hedging on both sides. For China-Japan relations, this has likely pleased Beijing as it means that Tokyo must take any challenges from Beijing seriously or pivot towards a pro-China policy as Tokyo may not be able to rely on the US anymore. For Tokyo, the summit was both a success and a failure, as it built rapport between Ishiba and Trump but has seemingly failed to prevent tariffs from being put on Japan in the future. 

A Divided Continent: In the future, Japan may have to pick a side between the US and China, be it on economic or security issues, or even both. With the US proving to be an unreliable partner, China may have a limited window to cooperate with Japan on mutual issues within and outside of Asia. What forms this would take remains to be seen, but there could be room to maneuver within foreign aid. As both the Belt and Road Initiative and the Japan International Cooperation Agency both will likely lose momentum with slowing economic growth in their respective countries, these two organizations could work together in order to promote development in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, coupling together the Japanese and Chinese foreign policies. On top of this, diplomatic measures could be taken by both sides in order to promote future cooperation on long term projects while also limiting tensions on long term disputes. While measures such as these are unlikely to appear within the next couple of years, if either side were to take the step towards such reconciliation, regardless of the US’ role in the region, real progress, both quantitative and qualitative,  could be made on pressing issues that affect both sides. Much like Japan’s old strategy of separating politics and economics, there are issues that transcend government, political, and even now economic fields that affect all of humanity. Development strategy, fighting diseases, and technological development in the private sector without dual use capabilities could be some fields where China and Japan may cooperate in the near future if relations continue to improve at the present rate.