July 8th, 2024

Overview

This week, we discuss the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan and analyze a meeting between the foreign ministers of China and India where they promised further talks to resolve their border dispute.

Like-Minded Neighbors

By Editor Jack Sepulvado

The annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit brought heads of state from China and several neighboring countries to Kazakhstan to discuss greater cooperation within Eurasia.

Birds of a Feather: Beginning on the 2nd of July, leaders of various Eurasian countries met in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana for the two-day annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), created in 2001 to foster joint cooperation on challenges facing the nations of the region. Having grown from the original “Shanghai Five” (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), the SCO has come to include several other countries––all autocracies––with Belarus being welcomed as the newest member at the 2024 meeting. Many see the SCO as a Chinese-led effort to counter Western alliances, being a kind of Eurasian version of the BRICS alliance.

Standing Together: Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted to emphasize the importance of Eurasian unity, calling for solidarity in the face of “real challenges of intervention and polarization.” Xi also warned against a “Cold War mentality” and stressed the need for building a “common home” of solidarity, peace, and prosperity. Xi outlined his vision of a more integrated Eurasia by enhancing multiple other regional organizations, such as a Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure and Anti-Drug Center. Additionally, China has fostered increased levels of economic cooperation with Eurasian nations like this year’s summit host, Kazakhstan. Last year, China became the country's largest trading partner, and bilateral relations with China have entered a “golden era,” according to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

• The summit was especially meaningful for Russian President Vladimir Putin, as it gave him an opportunity that the West has failed to isolate Russia since it began its war in Ukraine in 2022. Indeed, Putin has found China to be a helpful ally during its war, becoming a huge outlet for Russian oil exports and thereby blunting some of the damage by Western sanctions. Putin chided the “Euroatlantic” world order as “outdated” and that it gave “unilateral advantages only to certain states.” He echoed Xi’s sentiments about the SCO by hailing it as a key pillar of the “multipolar world.”

Towards Lasting Peace: India-China Border Talks

By Senior Editor Tanner Nalley

The foreign ministers of China and India met last week at a summit and discussed pursuing a new round of talks to secure a mutual resolution to their decades-long border dispute.

Border Talks: After recent years of elevated conflict along their high Himalayan borders, including border skirmishes, ministers from Russia and China agreed last week to redouble efforts to resolve their dispute. On July 4th, the foreign minister of India, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met at the 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in Astana, Kazakhstan. There, they discussed next steps for de-escalating the conflict, with Jaishanker affirming that the continuation of the current situation is “not in the interest of either side.” In principle, the two agreed to hold future talks with diplomatic and military officials from both countries to expedite a resolution. Wang added that if peace is achieved between the two countries, they should work together as a diplomatic and economic bloc to counter the influence from other global powers. However, such peace may be difficult to achieve, given the deep-rooted and complicated nature of the conflict, spanning decades. 

Historical Tension: The conflict between modern India and China extends back to a deterioration in relations in the early 1960s, resulting in the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Despite numerous talks between the two countries since then, the border between India and China has not been clearly demarcated, and troops from both countries routinely patrol the ambiguous border with no common understanding of where one country ends and the other begins. Such a situation leaves open the possibility of skirmishes as groups from opposing sides come into contact during patrols. Both countries also compete to build infrastructure, such as roads and railways, to assert dominance along the border. These provocations have contributed to skirmishes in recent years, including one in 2020 that left 24 soldiers dead and another nonlethal clash in 2022. However, if the promised talks successfully reduce tensions, global politics could shift significantly. 

Global Realignment: Although by no means guaranteed, a serious downgrading of the China-India border conflict could open up new opportunities for collaboration between the two countries, as Minister Wang has already indicated. For India, a new relationship with China could lead to positive economic effects and an improvement in their security outlook, both exceedingly important in a time of global political and economic uncertainty. On the other hand, China could benefit from better relations with India because it could subvert attempts by the United States to contain and isolate China by influencing surrounding countries against them.