November 11th, 2024
- CAF Newsletter Team
- Nov 10, 2024
- 5 min read
Diplomacy
China-Japan Summit Clears The Way for Bilateral Cooperation
By Contributor Julian Sherrod
On November 4th, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Japanese special advisor Takeo Akiba met to discuss pressing political issues and to set up a future summit between Chinese President Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba
The Opened Path: With the ascension of Shigeru Ishiba to the role of prime minister, with whom China wishes for better ties, China-Japan relations have been steadily improving over the past month. After Ishiba’s first overseas trip, where he downplayed diplomatic issues that were contentious with China, he talked with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Laos, with both sides promising cooperation between China and Japan. While the recent Japanese election has weakened Ishiba’s chances at remaining prime minister, this recent meeting between Wang Yi and Takeo Akiba has set the tone for the meetings to come.
Old Issues From New Eyes: During the meeting, a couple of key issues were discussed, such as keeping the September consensus to continue lifting the Chinese ban on Japanese fish that started because of the release of Fukushima’s treated water. Because of the Shenzhen stabbing, there was also a statement from the Japanese side emphasizing that China needs to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens in China. On security, the two sides discussed the recent developments dealing with North Korea, specifically North Korean troops being sent to Russia to fight in Ukraine, as well as the Chinese side emphasizing that they have been following peaceful development, despite the Chinese incursion into Japanese airspace in August. Most importantly, the meeting set up a future summit on the sidelines of another meeting in South America this month.
Election Scenarios: This meeting, while setting the stage for a future Xi-Ishiba summit, as well as continuing dialogue on pressing issues for both nations, also highlights flashpoints that could begin to create security issues in East Asia at any time. While the details of what will be discussed at the summit are not yet clear, it is probable that this will be yet another diplomatic challenge for Ishiba, especially with the myriad of challenges listed earlier. First though, Ishiba must be elected prime minister on November 11th by the Japanese Diet after the lackluster showing of his party last month, which will determine the fate of the summit and the value of the meeting that just occurred.
Diplomacy
Myanmar’s Junta Chief Visits China to Heal Wounded Relationship
By Contributor Max Low
On November 5th, Myanmar’s quasi-legitimate leader Min Au Hlaing visited China for the first time since rising to power in a 2021 coup.
A Warm Welcome: Last week, Min Aung Hlaing, leader of Myanmar’s military government, made his first visit to China since seizing power in 2021. The junta chief attended a two-day summit of the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), hosted by the city of Kunming in China’s Yunnan province from the 6th to the 8th of November. As part of the summit, Min Aung Hlaing will have the opportunity to meet and build relationships with political leadership from China, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. Both Min Aung Hlaing’s invitation itself and the remarks of Chinese officials at the summit signal a shift towards increased cooperation between Beijing and Myanmar’s new regime, who share a messy history.
The Junta: After staging a coup to steal control of Myanmar away from a democratically elected government in February of 2021, Min Aung Hlaing has become widely criticized both domestically and internationally for his regime’s violent suppression of dissent and baffling ineffectiveness. The last three years of military rule in Myanmar have been plagued by crisis and chaos, often threatening China’s interests in the region and thus stressing the relationship between Naypyidaw and Beijing. In 2023, Beijing—frustrated by the ineptness of the junta—went as far as to back Min Aung Hlaing’s opposition, an insurgency militia that promised to shut down scam centers targeting Chinese citizens in return. Then, in January of 2024, China finally brokered a peace deal between the two sides—only for it to fall apart early this summer.
Backing the Wrong Horse?: China, once again worried about their political and economic interests in Myanmar, likely invited Min Aung Hlaing to the GMS summit in an effort to protect said interests. In one meeting with Min Aung Hlaing, the day before the summit, Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged the junta to work with China to maintain the safety of Chinese nationals and organizations and bring down cross-border criminal enterprises. However, the implied legitimacy that China gave to Min Aung Hlaing’s rule through comments like this was also sufficient to spark outrage among the people of Myanmar, many of whom do not recognize the military government as their own. The spokesman of Myanmar’s National Unity Government, a shadow government composed of Myanmar’s ousted electees, was quick to remind China: “Myanmar’s people want stability, peace and economic growth. It is Min Aung Hlaing and his group who are destroying these things.”
Diplomacy
Indonesia and China: Forging a Lasting Partnership
By Contributor Varunavee Mohanraj
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made his first international trip to China this weekend to meet with President Xi Jinping in Beijing and discuss a partnership focused on the Global South, marking a significant step toward strengthening strategic cooperation.
Strengthening Ties: In their discussions, Xi emphasized that China and Indonesia should "firmly support each other in safeguarding core interests and major concerns," aiming to guide the Global South in solidarity and shared advancement. China has already been Indonesia’s biggest trade partner for over a decade; with China's Belt and Road Initiative already boosting Indonesian infrastructure, both leaders pledged to deepen their economic ties especially in sectors such as the digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy. Thus, the presidents signed a series of agreements encompassing key sectors like water conservation, maritime resources, and mining. This partnership includes Chinese investments worth over $10 billion that will be finalized in meetings with top Chinese companies. Both nations are aiming to solidify their role in global governance, with Indonesia even considering joining the BRICS economic bloc to further solidify its status as a pivotal player in the Global South.
South China Sea Disputes: Prabowo’s visit also comes amid tensions over Chinese coast guard incursions into Indonesia's exclusive economic zone near the Natuna Islands. Indonesian forces have recently escorted Chinese ships out of these contested waters, highlighting ongoing challenges in balancing economic cooperation with national sovereignty. Xi and Prabowo's focus on "comprehensive strategic partnership" signals an attempt to work collaboratively on these issues and avoid escalating conflict.
A Growing Partnership with Global Influence: President Prabowo reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to a “non-aligned foreign policy.” This allows him to avoid alliances against third-party nations and emphasize cooperation over confrontation. As Prabowo prepares for upcoming meetings with President Biden in the U.S. as well as other leaders in South America, his first stop in Beijing does reflect Indonesia’s deepening ties with China. In a nod to China’s stance on global issues, he also praised Beijing’s “uphold[ing] justice and righteousness” on the Middle East conflict while stressing Indonesia’s interest in fostering stability without aligning with any military bloc. The enhanced partnership between China and Indonesia certainly conveys a shared vision for a multilateral world order with the potential to reshape the dynamics of global influence.
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